| Abstract [eng] |
This Master‘s Final Degree project is analysing the influence of social-economic factors on international emigration in the Nordic and Eastern European Union countries. During the years, society became more mobile, so distances between the countries decreases to the minimum. Free labour market, better carrier opportunities, higher salary etc. influences people to emigrate from their country of origin to their destination country. Emigration in general should be a neutral process, but it has some pros and cons for origin country. Main pros are: payments transfers from foreign, better trade conditions with foreign countries, reduced unemployment rate, people can re-emigrate with more knowledge and experience. Despite all these pros, there is problematic cons which should be eliminated: increase of capital export, “brain drain”, “hand drain”, lack of experienced specialists, reduce of production volume, aging society, bad demographic situation in the country, decrease of social security payments. In order to know which of social-economic factors has the most influence on international emigration, the systematic literature analysis was prepared. It includes the analysis of main migration theories such as Neoclassical, New Economics, Migration systems and networks, Dual labour market, World system theory. Based on these theories and other researchers empirical findings the main social-economic indicators were raised: average annual net earnings, unemployment trap, employment rate, part of social allowance in GDP, part of pensions in GDP, part of government costs on higher education in GDP, index of economic freedom, GINI coefficient, rate of household overflow with youth people, unemployment rate. After bringing the main factors based on literature review, the dynamic analyses of the respective socio-economic indicators and emigration flows were prepared. Going further, correlation analyses of independent variables and emigration rate was prepared. At the end of the research, based on statistical and correlation analysis, the regression analyses was prepared. In the regression analyses, main social-economic indicators were analysed in the majority of analysed countries. After the review of the results, some statistical patterns were revealed. Unemployment trap rate had inverse dependency with emigration flows, so it means when unemployment trap increases, the emigration flows decreases. For that reason the origin country should reduce the social allowances or increase salary rate in order to reduce this indicator and motivates unemployed people to search a place to work. Another significant indicator was economic freedom index and it had both: direct and inverse dependencies with emigration flows. So, in case it has inverse dependency, the emigration flows decreases when the index increases. It means that people are happy with better economic situation in the country and it motivates them to stay. In case index has direct dependency, it means that when economic freedom index increases, the emigration flows increases as well. For that reason the origin country should research why the economic freedom index increases (as it should state that economic of the country is growing), but the emigration flows increases as well. In the end, the pattern was found between annual net earnings and emigration flows as well. B coefficient of annual net earnings was positive, so it means that when annual net earnings increases the emigration flows increases as well. Based on statistical analyses, annual net earnings of Eastern European Union countries has significant difference comparing to European Union average. So, it could be that the increase of annual net earnings does not motivate the people, so they are still leaving country of origin. |
