| Abstract [eng] |
The objective of this work is explore opportunities for export development in the BRICS group, which contains of five countries: Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. These countries are rapidly growing and developing, which is why the potential of international trade in them is very important for Lithuanian companies. The main importance of the work is to evaluate and present the dynamic and structural analyzes of Lithuania by distinguishing the most promising sectors, analyzing their market share and growth rates, following the example of BRICS countries. The results of the work show that the vector autoregressive model is suitable for assessing the potential of export development, considering that the data time horizon recurring every year seasonally with trend. With the help of an open R code environment, the appropriateness and adequacy of time series of export analysis tools was evaluated and adjusted. The result of granger causality and impulse functions tests - VAR(p) most accurate models for potential sectors with p delays. Also, to have assessment of the model forecast accuracy, we analyze univariate times series using ARIMA (p,d,q) model and making times series forecasts. Forecasting univariate and multivariate time series was done for half of a year ahead. |
