| Abstract [eng] |
In the contemporary global economy, global crises increasingly affect international trade and supply chains, exposing their vulnerabilities and dependence on external factors. Growing systemic uncertainty and interdependence highlight the need to better understand the role of the European Union in global supply chains and trade elasticity in the context of crisis shocks. The aim of this master’s thesis is to assess the role of the European Union in international supply chains and trade elasticity during global crises by analyzing theoretical and methodological aspects and developing an integrated research framework. The study explores supply chain management concepts, the notion of trade elasticity, and the nature of global crises within interconnected systems. The literature review indicates that the understanding of supply chains has evolved from traditional linear models to complex, digitalized, and integrated networks focused on value creation for the end customer. However, a lack of a unified methodological framework for assessing the impact of digitalization and autonomous systems on supply chains and trade elasticity in times of crisis remains evident. The analysis of the European Union’s role in international trade highlights structural changes related to supply dependencies, energy resources, and fluctuations in trade flows. The literature emphasizes the need to move from a cost-efficiency-based model toward one based on strategic autonomy, risk management, and supply diversification, thereby strengthening the EU’s position in global supply chains. Trade elasticity is identified as a key indicator for assessing the sensitivity of trade flows to external shocks, although its application in supply chain research remains limited. Its importance is associated with product characteristics, market structure, and substitution possibilities, making it a relevant factor in evaluating supply chain flexibility and resilience. Based on the theoretical analysis, a conceptual model of global crises is developed, grounded in a systemic approach that captures crisis emergence and propagation through interdependencies, domino effects, and feedback loops. Furthermore, an integrated methodological framework is proposed, combining regression analysis, causality testing, ARDL modeling, and structural break analysis to enable a comprehensive assessment of crisis impacts on trade elasticity and the role of the European Union in global supply chains in both the short and long term. |
