| Abstract [eng] |
In this final master’s project, we evaluate the impact of emigration, immigration, and return migration on Lithuania’s labour market indicators – employment level, unemployment rate, average wages, and labour productivity. The assessment covers the period from 2008 to 2024. Drawing on academic literature, the project discusses migration-related issues and their effects on the labour market, identifies the causes of labour force migration, conducts statistical data analysis, reviews migration trends between 2008 and 2024, performs a macro-level econometric study to assess the impact of migration on the labour market, and provides recommendations. The review of scientific literature shows that there is no unified conclusion. Some researchers identify positive effects, others – negative consequences. This diversity of findings is believed to result from the dynamic nature of migration processes and the fact that research outcomes depend on the country studied and the specific aspect of migration being analysed. Based on publicly available statistical data, this study examines the impact of labour force migration on Lithuania’s labour market. The dependent variables used in the analysis include unemployment, employment, average wages, and labour productivity, while the independent variables are emigration, immigration, and return migration. The study consists of two stages: the first involves statistical and graphical analysis, which forms the basis for generating hypotheses; the second includes econometric analysis, such as correlation analysis, the Granger causality test, and the development of OLS and ARDL regression models. According to the results, the hypotheses are confirmed or rejected. The findings of the econometric analysis show that only emigration has a clear effect on the labour market. A one percentage point increase in emigration reduces the employment level by 2,74 percentage points, while the unemployment rate decreases by 3,17 percentage points. Immigration also demonstrates an effect: a one percentage point increase in immigration raises labour productivity by 0,11 percentage points and average wages by 0,02 percentage points. However, return migration has no statistically significant impact on any of the labour market indicators. To gain a more comprehensive understanding of migration’s impact on Lithuania’s labour market, it is necessary to analyse not only macroeconomic indicators but also sectoral, occupational, and regional levels. Migration may have meaningful effects on specific labour market groups even when macro-level indicators do not reveal such relationships. Therefore, future research could incorporate more detailed microeconomic and regional analyses to determine the true impact of migration on Lithuania’s labour market. |
