| Abstract [eng] |
The effects of international sanctions are gaining increasing significance in the current geopolitical context, making it important to understand the history, objectives, types, and effectiveness of this frequently used foreign policy tool. One of the key components of the effectiveness of international sanctions is their economic impact. For these reasons, it is relevant to analyze which macroeconomic indicators of a sanctioned country are most affected by international sanctions. Aim of the thesis – to assess the macroeconomic impact of international sanctions. In order to achieve the aim of the thesis, four objectives have been formed: to reveal the issues and trends in assessing the macroeconomic impact of international sanctions, to provide a theoretical basis for the relationship between international sanctions and a country’s macroeconomic indicators and examine the areas where the macroeconomic effects of sanctions manifest, to develop a methodology for researching the impact of international sanctions on a country’s macroeconomic indicators, and to conduct a study on the impact of international sanctions on Russia’s macroeconomic indicators and provide recommendations. The first part of the thesis evaluates that the effectiveness of international sanctions is viewed controversially, while statistics on sanctions initiated by the European Union show a significant increase in recent years, largely driven by sanctions against Russia following the full-scale military invasion of Ukraine in 2022. A lack of information analyzing the impact of international sanctions on Russia’s macroeconomic indicators has been observed. In the second part of the thesis, based on the analysis of scientific literature, indicators of the macroeconomic effectiveness of international sanctions were identified. It was highlighted that the effectiveness of sanctions can be reflected in macroeconomic indicators such as changes in GDP, trade flows, and FDI. In the third part of the thesis, an empirical research methodology was developed, where the number of EU-initiated sanctions against Russia was chosen as the independent variable, while 12 macroeconomic indicators of Russia were selected as dependent variables. In the fourth part of the thesis, the results of econometric analysis showed that the number of EU-initiated sanctions against Russia has a significantly negative impact on the country’s FDI, the MOEX Russia Index value, and unemployment, while it has a positive impact on Russia’s defense spending and capital flows. The conducted research allows for the formulation of the following recommendations for future studies: if possible, analyze longer and more recent time series of the variables, examine the impact of international sanctions at the level of specific markets or sectors, and study the impact not only on sanctioned countries but also on the initiators of the sanctions. |
