| Abstract [eng] |
The transport and logistics sector plays an important role in Lithuania’s economy – it contributes to GDP growth, employment, and the facilitation of international trade. The sector’s competitiveness is particularly significant under globalization, where performance is influenced not only by internal factors (such as infrastructure quality, innovation, regulatory environment), but also by external shocks (economic crises, geopolitical conflicts). In recent years, events such as the COVID-19 pandemic, the war in Ukraine, global supply chain disruptions, rapidly rising inflation and spikes in energy prices have highlighted the sector’s vulnerability to external shocks. This makes it crucial to assess how economic shocks affect the competitiveness of the transport and logistics sector, especially given the lack of prior quantitative studies on this issue. The aim of the study is to evaluate the competitiveness of Lithuania’s transport and logistics sector in the context of economic shocks and to identify the key factors affecting its performance and adaptability to market changes. The main objectives are as follows: 1. To analyse the problematic aspects of competitiveness in Lithuania’s transport and logistics sector. 2. To identify the main economic shocks and the mechanisms through which they affect the transport and logistics sector. 3. To assess the competitiveness factors of Lithuania’s transport and logistics sector by applying M. Porter’s diamond model and econometric analysis. 4. To develop recommendations for strengthening the competitiveness of Lithuania’s transport and logistics sector based on the research findings. The study applies both theoretical and empirical methods, including macroenvironmental analysis (PESTEL, Porter’s diamond), literature review, statistical analysis, and econometric modelling methods – stationarity testing of time series, Granger causality test, and the ARDL model. The empirical part covers the period 2005–2024 and analyses Lithuania’s macroeconomic indicators (GDP, inflation, unemployment, foreign trade flows) and sectoral indicators (revenue) based on official statistical sources (Statistics Lithuania, Eurostat, etc.). The literature review shows that the competitiveness of the transport and logistics sector is influenced by a variety of factors. The most important include operational efficiency, cost management, high-quality infrastructure, innovation adoption, a skilled workforce, and the ability to integrate into international supply chains. A competitive transport sector usually contributes to economic growth, expands trade volumes, increases investment attractiveness, and helps balance international trade. The literature highlights that economic shocks (e.g., demand decline or sudden cost increases) may temporarily reduce competitiveness indicators, but appropriate government policy or business strategies (e.g., cost optimization, market diversification, digitalization) can help mitigate the negative effects. Efficient sectoral competitiveness enhancement tools mentioned in the literature include investments in transport infrastructure, financial and fiscal support measures, strategic planning, and public–private cooperation – all these measures may contribute to a more effective logistics policy under shock conditions. The transport and logistics sector plays an important role in Lithuania’s economy – it contributes to GDP growth, employment, and the facilitation of international trade. The sector’s competitiveness is particularly significant under globalization, where performance is influenced not only by internal factors (such as infrastructure quality, innovation, regulatory environment), but also by external shocks (economic crises, geopolitical conflicts). In recent years, events such as the COVID-19 pandemic, the war in Ukraine, global supply chain disruptions, rapidly rising inflation and spikes in energy prices have highlighted the sector’s vulnerability to external shocks. This makes it crucial to assess how economic shocks affect the competitiveness of the transport and logistics sector, especially given the lack of prior quantitative studies on this issue. The aim of the study is to evaluate the competitiveness of Lithuania’s transport and logistics sector in the context of economic shocks and to identify the key factors affecting its performance and adaptability to market changes. The main objectives are as follows: 1. To analyse the problematic aspects of competitiveness in Lithuania’s transport and logistics sector. 2. To identify the main economic shocks and the mechanisms through which they affect the transport and logistics sector. 3. To assess the competitiveness factors of Lithuania’s transport and logistics sector by applying M. Porter’s diamond model and econometric analysis. 4. To develop recommendations for strengthening the competitiveness of Lithuania’s transport and logistics sector based on the research findings. The study applies both theoretical and empirical methods, including macroenvironmental analysis (PESTEL, Porter’s diamond), literature review, statistical analysis, and econometric modelling methods – stationarity testing of time series, Granger causality test, and the ARDL model. The empirical part covers the period 2005–2024 and analyses Lithuania’s macroeconomic indicators (GDP, inflation, unemployment, foreign trade flows) and sectoral indicators (revenue) based on official statistical sources (Statistics Lithuania, Eurostat, etc.). The literature review shows that the competitiveness of the transport and logistics sector is influenced by a variety of factors. The most important include operational efficiency, cost management, high-quality infrastructure, innovation adoption, a skilled workforce, and the ability to integrate into international supply chains. A competitive transport sector usually contributes to economic growth, expands trade volumes, increases investment attractiveness, and helps balance international trade. The literature highlights that economic shocks (e.g., demand decline or sudden cost increases) may temporarily reduce competitiveness indicators, but appropriate government policy or business strategies (e.g., cost optimization, market diversification, digitalization) can help mitigate the negative effects. Efficient sectoral competitiveness enhancement tools mentioned in the literature include investments in transport infrastructure, financial and fiscal support measures, strategic planning, and public–private cooperation – all these measures may contribute to a more effective logistics policy under shock conditions. The empirical results revealed that the main macroeconomic variables have a significant effect on the competitiveness of Lithuania’s transport and logistics sector. Granger causality tests showed that changes in GDP, imports and inflation statistically explain fluctuations in transport sector revenue (exports were excluded due to high correlation with imports, and unemployment due to weak direct link). ARDL model results revealed that in the long term, GDP growth has a positive effect on sectoral revenue (e.g., a €1 million GDP increase results in an average sectoral revenue growth of ~€0.37 million), while inflation shock has a strong negative effect (a 1 p.p. rise in inflation reduces sectoral revenue by ~€38 million). These results confirm that the sector is closely linked to the macroeconomic environment: during economic upturns, the activities of transport companies expand, whereas in the event of a sudden demand shock, they suffer significant revenue losses. Therefore, the sector’s competitiveness strongly depends on macroeconomic stability. In practical terms, maintaining high competitiveness during periods of economic shocks requires the implementation of macroeconomic stabilisation measures (especially inflation control) and targeted policies (e.g., depreciation incentives, fuel excise relief or crisis-related subsidies). Investments in infrastructure, innovation, and the digitalization of logistics processes are also essential for strengthening the sector’s resilience and ensuring long-term competitiveness. |
