| Abstract [eng] |
In the face of rapid globalization the international trading is one of key components of economic development for countries and a driver for growth. It allows for more efficient use of resources, increases competition, reduces production costs, improves quality, and increases variety of products. Export is an axis of an international economic activity. It enables countries to specialize, to achieve economies of scale, to invest in innovations and create high – value products; import is paid from the generated funds that also increases competition, provides consumers a choice and improves their quality of life. One of the most topical issues for export expansion in Lithuania is that the higher value-added products and high-tech sectors represent only 3 percent of total export, giving emphasis on insufficient innovation and efficiency, use of scientific potential, cooperation between business and science. The object of this thesis is Lithuanian fertilizer industry export. The aim of this thesis is to assess the export expansion possibilities for Lithuanian fertilizer industry. To achieve this goal, the following tasks were set: to review marketing trends for fertilizer industry, to highlight the importance of export and problematics; to overview the scientific literature on the export expansion possibilities, to identify factors and evaluation techniques determining export; to overview legal regulation of the export (promotion and restrictions); to overview research methodology of export expansion possibilities; to create a regression model for predicting the volume of export depending on changes in environmental factors. The thesis uses methods such as comparative analysis of a scientific literature, statistical analysis and regression analysis. The carried out correlative and regressive analysis allowed identifying factors that determine the amount of Lithuanian fertilizer industry export. The following global industry factors have the greatest impact on the Lithuanian fertilizer industry export: global fertilizer price index and global grain price index. Furthermore, the amount of export is influenced by the economic factor – the country's gross domestic product. The created polynomial regression model allows to predict that the amount of Lithuanian fertilizer export will increase in 2017 – 2018 respectively by 14,77 per cent and 3,96 per cent., up to 819,49 million euros in 2018. Taking into account the price forecast for raw materials, natural rocks and natural gas required for fertilizer production, it could be said that the competitiveness of Lithuanian fertilizer industry will require additional measures. |
