| Title |
Lietuvos ekonominių ciklų analizė / |
| Translation of Title |
Analysis of Lithuanian economic cycles. |
| Authors |
Andriunaitytė, Indrė |
| Full Text |
|
| Pages |
59 |
| Keywords [eng] |
Lithuanian economics ; economic cycles ; analysis |
| Abstract [eng] |
The aim of this masters‘s work is to analyse the periodicy of Lithuanian economic cycles, define dependence between them and to find best forecasting model for one of economic cycles - customer price index from 2000 to 2011. Not tradicional model named Phillips curve was proposed where unemployment rate is changed by other economic indicator. One question appears - is there any leading indicators which could outperform simple autoregression? The results of this work shows that such a possibility is feasible. Taking gross domestic product into model shows better forecasts because this indicator is orientating economic indicator. The program code with statistical packet SAS was created which evaluate optimal parameters of Phillips curve model and realize optimal forecast desired steps ahead of consumer price index. The forecasted customer price index for 2011 second quarter – 133.5 with 95% confidence interval [131.8; 135.3]. The new method of showing forecasts was proposed. |
| Type |
Master thesis |
| Language |
Lithuanian |
| Publication date |
2011 |
