| Abstract [eng] |
Governments can selectively allocate aid to sectors or companies, on the one hand, to compensate for market failures, in order to improve social welfare. On the other hand, such aid may normally lead to distortions of competition in the market or adversely affect international trade. The ambiguous impact of state aid raises the question what overall impact state aid has on the country’s economy. It is noticeable that the extent of state aid is unevenly distributed in the EU countries. Compared to the EU average, the countries of Central and Eastern EU provide more state aid in terms of the share of state aid expenditure in GDP. In assessing the importance of state aid today, and given the ambiguous impact of state aid and aid trends in Central and Eastern EU countries, it is important to analyze the impact of state aid on the economies of Central and Eastern EU countries and its adequacy. The aim of this work is to assess the impact of state aid on the economies of Central and Eastern EU countries. Tasks set for the implementation of the aim of the work: to perform the analysis of the problem of the impact of state aid on the economies of the EU countries; to analyze the areas of expression of the impact of state aid on the country's economy; to develop an empirical model for the study of the impact of state aid on the economies of the Central and Eastern EU countries; to carry out an assessment of the impact of state aid on the economies of the Central and Eastern EU countries on the basis of the developed model. A detailed theoretical analysis of the impact of state aid on the economies of the Central and Eastern EU countries has shown that there is still no clear position on the impact of state aid on the country's economy. It can be argued that the impact assessment depends on the situation of individual countries, the objectives of the State aid granted, etc. Based on the results of theoretical analysis and the availability of statistical data, the impact of state aid on the economies of Central and Eastern EU countries was examined, including the independent variable – total state aid expenditure in Central and Eastern EU countries and dependent variables: exports, employment, GDP per capita, business investment. A research model consisting of two parts was developed: statistical and graphical analysis, based on the results of which the research hypotheses were raised, and econometric modeling, based on the results of which the hypotheses were confirmed or rejected. Econometric modeling was performed based on correlation analysis, Granger causality test, ARDL, ECM, PTR, PNR models, multiplier estimation. A study of the impact of state aid spending on macroeconomic indicators in Central and Eastern EU countries has shown that state aid does not promote economic growth and development in many Central and Eastern EU countries. In some cases, state aid contributes to the growth of the employment rate in the country (in the Czech Republic, with a 1 percentage point increase in state 6 aid expenditure over the long term, the change in employment increases by almost 9 percentage points; in the short run, with a 1 percentage point increase in state aid spending, the change in employment increases by 5 percentage points). On the other hand, in some cases state aid even has a negative impact on economic growth (in Hungary, in the long run a 1 percentage point increase in state aid expenditure leads to the decline in real GDP by almost 0.3 percentage points; in the short run, a 1 percentage point increase in state aid expenditure leads to the decline in real GDP by 0.12 percentage points). The impact of state aid is observed in the countries of the Central and Eastern EU, where state aid expenditure is highest – Hungary and the Czech Republic. Assessing the impact of state aid at the macroeconomic level, it can be concluded that for many Central and Eastern EU countries, state aid is not an appropriate tool to promote economic growth and can be seen as an inefficient way to achieve this goal. On the other hand, in order to assess the overall impact of state aid on the economy, the impact at sectoral and market levels should be analyzed as well as social indicators should be included in the analysis. |
