| Abstract [eng] |
he main aim of this Master's thesis is to assess the insolvency risk of selected companies listed on the NASDAQ Baltic Stock Exchange and to determine which methods are the most appropriate for risk assessment, using such secondary tasks as the analysis of existing methods for insolvency assessment, the development of empirical research methodology. This work consists of four main parts: problem analysis, review of the scientific literature, research and its results, conclusions and recommendations. The problem analysis reviews the concept of insolvency, the positive and negative consequences of insolvency, and proves the need for insolvency risk assessment. The analysis of scientific literature examines the opinion of different authors related to the insolvency assessment methods, compares the proposed methodologies, reviews each of the stages proposed for use in insolvency risk assessment. Internal and external factors that determine the company's solvency are being analysed, financial indicators that are the most appropriate for assessing the company's financial condition from the perspective of insolvency are identified, as well as the possible use of bankruptcy forecasting models as an additional tool to determine potential insolvency risk is described and one of the newer methods - Kralicek tests. Finally, a summary of the analysed information is presented using a conceptual model. After the analysis of the scientific literature, the author describes the methodology of the insolvency risk assessment research, proposing to research in 6 stages. The author indicates how the companies will be selected for a study, what economic indicators are examined in order to assess their impact on the total number of insolvent companies. In addition, the selection of financial indicators and other models that can help assess the risk of corporate insolvency is performed and the necessity of using these models is justified. The study found that factors such as unemployment and inflation have the greatest impact on the number of insolvent companies. Also, during the research, the limitation of the use of financial indicators was determined, which is defined by several factors: the problem of complex evaluation of indicator values and the objectivity of the analyzer. The use of the Kralicek DF indicator and its application together with financial indicators showed good results during the study, which led to the conclusion that this method is suitable for a complex insolvency risk assessment. The use of bankruptcy prediction models in the study allowed the author to identify the shortcomings and limitations of these models, comparing the results of different models, decide which models are more suitable for the Baltic market and which do not show obvious financial difficulties previously identified using other insolvency assessment methodologies. The conclusions and recommendations summarize the main concepts of the analysis of the scientific literature and the results of the research. The author believes that the results of the study could provide useful information on the topic of insolvency analysis for companies and other stakeholders, such as investors interested in Baltic equities. |
