| Abstract [eng] |
In today ‘s European Union (EU) agriculture and food industry faces an increasing number of challenges. These problems require solutions, so EU provides agricultural support which is governed by CAP. One the most frequently reviewed problem in scientific literature is the significantly different performance of agriculture of EU countries on relatively similar conditions. In order to properly assess its benefits and effectiveness and impact on economy of agriculture, it is necessary to research from several perspectives, both at the theoretical and practical levels by modelling different scenarios, using different indicators. In this paper the object of research is the EU agricultural support in Lithuania. The aim of the research is to examine the impact of EU support on Lithuanian agriculture, for which the following essential tasks have been set: to find and analyze the main problems of the impact of EU support on agriculture, to analyze the impact of EU support on agriculture in the EU and in Lithuania at theoretical level, to create empirical model of the impact of EU support on Lithuanian agriculture, to perform empirical analysis of the impact of EU support on Lithuanian agriculture. This paper performs a detailed analysis of EU agricultural support at the theoretical level in Lithuania and the EU as a whole, using comparative analysis of the literature and also proposes an alternative empirical assessment methodology of EU support for agriculture in Lithuania – econometric modeling using publicly available data of indicators for 2007-2018 years: EU agricultural support, agricultural production at current prices, agricultural production at current prices per declared hectare of agricultural land, production at current prices per employee of agricultural sector, crop yield, amount of milk from one cow per year, number of farms, average farm size. It is worth mentioning that the independent variable in all cases is EU support. Empirical analysis is based by Granger causality test and development of the most appropriate models. This helped to find a long-term multiplier, which describes the impact of EU support on chosen agricultural indicator. The results showed that the impact of EU support on production at current prices – 1 EU support euro resulted in an increase of 0,851 euro in production at current prices. Impact of EU support on production at current prices per one declared hectare of agricultural land – 1 million euro of EU support resulted in an increase of 1,39 euro in production at current prices per one hectare. Impact of EU support on production at current prices per one employee was that 1 million euro of EU support resulted in an increase of 33,1 euro in production at current prices per one agricultural employee. If EU support is increased by 1 million euro, the number of farms decreases by 23. After examining the impact of EU support on cereal yields, milk yield per cow per year, average farm size, no causal relationship was found, therefore the models were not developed. However, correlation analysis in recent cases has shown that milk yield and average farm size are strongly correlated with EU support. |
