| Abstract [eng] |
The final master thesis analyzes the factors which makes impact to the wholesale price of electricity. Electricity is an integral part of modern life. Without electricity most appliances, which are used in everyday life are useless. In general, without electricity we could not live the life we live today.Electricity is used in almost all households. The electricity is also a very important component in industry, in manufacturing, Electricity, as an integral part of the economy, and is involved in almost every day-to-day household and production process, and therefore its cost is important to the entire population. The wholesale price of electricity is the largest component of the final price paid for the electricity energy. In time, this price is not constant and constantly changes. Knowing the estimated cost of electricity which will be in the future is crucial to further planning, whether in the household, in the state or in the industry. Predicting changes in the price of electricity requires to know, what these changes makes to happen. The research object of the thesis is the factors that influence the wholesale price of electricity. The aim of this work is to determine factors influencing the wholesale price of electricity in Lithuania and measure the effect these factors have to the whole sale electricity price in Lithuania.The paper reviews various factors in different countries that influence the wholesale price of electricity. The paper also describes and analyzes the functioning of the wholesale electricity market.After a theoretical analysis and review of various sources, eight factors influencing the potential price of electricity are identified in order to investigate the factors influencing the wholesale electricity price in Lithuania. For the investigation data of the year 2014-2019 are used. Data, with total of 23 observations. Correlation analysis shows that three factors have a significant relationship with the wholesale price of electricity: the oil price in the world, the price of imported natural gas and the amount of electricity imported from the CIS. Regression analysis revealed that three factors also have a significant impact on the wholesale electricity price. Three nonlinear one-tailed regressions and one linear two-tailed regression model were constructed. It was investigated, that rising wholesale oil prices and rising price of imported natural gas increases price of whole sale electricity price in Lithuania. As the volume of electricity imported from the CIS increases, the wholesale price of electricity also increases. The most accurate of the developed regression models is the linear regression dual model, which explains 50.6% of the wholesale electricity price values obtained by changing the selected parameters - the amount of electricity imported from the CIS and the wholesale price of oil. |
