Title Lėktuvo kritimo ant Ignalinos AE tikimybės vertinimas atsižvelgiant į duomenų neapibrėžtumą /
Translation of Title The aircraft crash on the Ignalina NPP probability estimation considering data uncertainty.
Another Title Оценка вероятности падения самолета на Игналинскую АЭС с учетом неопре- деленности данных.
Authors Alzbutas, Robertas ; Kupčiūnienė, Kristina ; Adlytė, Rūta ; Augutis, Juozas
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Is Part of Energetika = Power engineering = Энергетика.. Vilnius : Lietuvos mokslų akademijos leidykla. 2007, nr. 1, p. 1-9.. ISSN 0235-7208
Keywords [eng] Probabilistic modeling ; Aircraft crash frequency ; Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis
Abstract [eng] Efforts to perform the deterministic and probabilistic analysis and to improve the safety of the Ignalina NPP are continuously being increased in Lithuania. Probabilistic safety estimation at the Ignalina NPP shows that it is necessary to keep on performing risk analysis and to continue improving safety. Technical experiments and calculations in different countries allow an unambiguous conclusion that the main building constructions of the Ignalina NPP would withstand the falling of light planes and can be destroyed by heavy transport or military planes. Crash of a light plane on the Ignalina NPP may damage separate systems important for the safety of the plant (for example, to break off the lines of the external electric system) and cause other accidents. Thus, the modelling of aircraft crash occurrence and its impact on the Ignalina NPP is significant in order to evaluate risk and prevent potential failure of the systems important to safety. In this work, we improve the aircraft crash probability estimation model in order to analyze the importance of the used parameters for the results. The aircraft crash probability on the territory of the NPP with the radius r may be expressed by the derived formula. This formula is used to calculate the aircraft crash probability using the most recent statistical data. As part of the initial conditions and parameters of aircraft crash models are not well-known or have different values for different types of planes, the uncertainty analysis was performed for a new model. The sensitivity analysis determines the parameters that have the greatest influence on the model results. Conclusions about the importance of the parameters and sensitivity of the results are obtained using a linear approximation of the model under analysis.
Published Vilnius : Lietuvos mokslų akademijos leidykla
Type Journal article
Language Lithuanian
Publication date 2007