| Title |
Energijos rinkos kainos prognozavimas Australijoje |
| Translation of Title |
Market energy price forecasting in Australia. |
| Authors |
Lingevičius, Adomas |
| Full Text |
|
| Pages |
74 |
| Keywords [eng] |
electricity ; price ; long-term ; forecast ; PPA |
| Abstract [eng] |
The aim of this project is to develop and apply a methodology for a long-term energy market price forecast oriented to power purchase agreement price evaluation. The need of a more extensive methodology rises from the imbalance of energy consumers and producers load profiles which in turn requires a more detailed forecast than the usual monthly or quarterly forecasts. The methodology developed in this thesis is applied to two states in Australia – New South Wales and Victoria using Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) data. A total of 20 methods are trained and tested using a two-stage testing process. The results show that even though weekly price average forecasts obtain constant values throughout the forecasted horizon applying time-shapes gives the needed level of detail and variability of the forecast for both states. Thus, letting both energy consumers and producers make a more informed and personalized decisions on the potential value of a PPA. |
| Dissertation Institution |
Kauno technologijos universitetas. |
| Type |
Master thesis |
| Language |
English |
| Publication date |
2019 |
