| Abstract [eng] |
Rapidly growing investments in renewable energy promote its expansion, but also increase the risks of saturation and financial bubbles. These processes are examined through Financial Saturation Theory based on the logic of limited growth. The theoretical analysis focuses on saturation level, elasticity, feedback mechanisms, Market Duality, and the Saturation Paradox. Financial bubbles are explained as an endogenous phenomenon in systems with limited capacity. Based on this analysis, the dissertation develops and applies a model that assesses saturation level using price, accumulated capital, and installed capacity indicators. The model identifies growth stages and Bifurcation Points and distinguishes between productive and destructive bubbles according to saturation dynamics and the subsequent development of the system. The model is applied to the biomass-based district heating system in the Kaunas region, renewable energy equity indices, and global installed capacity projections for solar, wind, battery storage, and renewable energy as a whole. The results show that increasing saturation may accelerate growth and increase profitability, but at the same time reduce system stability and increase sensitivity to shocks. Sustainable development based on renewable energy may therefore become unsustainable when investment-driven expansion exceeds the system’s capacity to absorb capital. The developed model can be used as an early warning tool for identifying growth stages, Bifurcation Points, and financial bubble risks. |
