| Abstract [eng] |
This dissertation identifies the uncertainties affecting the district heating (DH) market and establishes a methodology for their assessment, specifically tailored to the case of Vilnius. The theoretical analysis reveals that DH development is strongly influenced by regulatory frameworks, market structures, and uncertainty factors. A hierarchical uncertainty-control pyramid is proposed to classify controllable, semi-controllable, and uncontrollable uncertainties and support decision-making during the energy transition. The investigation of existing energy modeling tools reveals the limitations of deterministic simulation and optimization approaches in reflecting the dynamics of district heating markets and investment risks. To address these limitations, a stochastic approach methodology is established, which enables the identification of financially viable investment portfolios, by assessing different policy scenarios under the execution of Monte Carlo uncertainty and sensitivity analyses. This dissertation demonstrates the application of a partial equilibrium economic model to the selected Vilnius city DH system. Uncertainty analysis indicates significant potential for integrating renewable and waste heat technologies to maximize investor profit, ensure adequate heat auction prices, and reduce CO2 emissions. Sensitivity analysis identifies future hydrogen price dynamics as the most influential uncertainty factor. The research provides practical guidance for policymakers, operators, and investors and is applicable to DH systems beyond Vilnius. The framework also demonstrates the feasibility of an hourly auction system, enabling more reliable and efficient operation of the DH market. |
