| Title |
Fractional-order forest wildfire modeling for predictive analysis and risk mitigation |
| Authors |
Damaševičius, Robertas ; Maskeliūnas, Rytis |
| DOI |
10.1016/j.procs.2026.04.004 |
| Full Text |
|
| Is Part of |
Procedia computer science: 17th international conference on ambient systems, networks and technologies networks, (ANT), 14-16 April 2026, Istanbul, Turkiye.. Amsterdam : Elsevier. 2026, vol. 280, p. 15-22.. ISSN 1877-0509 |
| Keywords [eng] |
fire propagation ; fractional calculus ; numerical simulation ; reaction-diffusion equations ; Wildfire modeling |
| Abstract [eng] |
This study presents a novel fractional order reaction-diffusion model to simulate forest wildfire dynamics by integrating ecological and climatic variables. The model captures key processes such as vegetation regrowth, moisture evaporation, and fire propagation, while accounting for memory effects through the use of Caputo fractional derivatives. Unlike traditional wildfire models, the proposed framework incorporates long-term dependencies and delayed feedback mechanisms, offering enhanced realism and predictive accuracy. A set of numerical simulations are conducted to investigate the influence of vegetation density, moisture content, and temperature anomalies on the dynamics of fire spread. Scenario-based analyzes evaluate the effectiveness of firebreaks and suppression strategies under varying climatic conditions. The results demonstrate the value of fractional order modeling in capturing the spatio-temporal complexity of wildfires and offer practical insights for adaptive risk mitigation and ecological management. |
| Published |
Amsterdam : Elsevier |
| Type |
Conference paper |
| Language |
English |
| Publication date |
2026 |
| CC license |
|
