| Abstract [eng] |
This master’s thesis analyses the development of Lithuania’s district heating system in the context of climate change. The study assesses how changes in heat and cooling demand, CO₂ emission reduction targets, electricity prices, and assumptions about technology development may affect the system by 2050. The thesis reviews the development of district heating and cooling systems in Lithuania and in selected European countries: Denmark, Sweden, Finland, Germany, and Spain. Possible climate change scenarios and their impact on energy demand are analysed. Existing and prospective future technologies that could contribute to the transformation of the heating sector are also discussed, including thermal energy storage, solar collectors, and heat pumps. The analysis of Lithuania’s district heating system development was carried out using a mathematical optimization model developed in the MESSAGE software. The thesis explains the modelling principles, the input data used, such as technology costs, efficiency and emission coefficients, and the detailed time segmentation. The modelling period covers 2023–2050. The scenarios assess the impact of electricity prices, climate change, CO₂ emission constraints, and thermal energy storage development on the system structure and costs. The scenario results are discussed separately in technical and economic analyses. |
