| Abstract [eng] |
In recent years, increasing geopolitical uncertainty and intensifying trade conflicts among the world’s major economies have significantly altered the dynamics of international trade and financial markets. The close economic and financial interconnections formed under globalization imply that trade policy decisions exert not only a direct impact on trade flows, but also indirectly affect investor expectations and stock market fluctuations. For this reason, trade tariff conflicts have become a significant source of systemic risk, the assessment of whose impact on financial markets is relevant from both scientific and practical perspectives. The object of the research is the impact of tariff wars on stock market fluctuations in the United States, Europe, and China. The aim of this study is to evaluate how trade war events affect stock market returns in the United States, Europe, and China, as well as the differences in market reactions across these regions. Such comparative analysis provides the basis for determining whether the impact of trade wars is symmetrical across different markets and which factors influence their sensitivity. The study applies the event study methodology, which enables the identification of short term abnormal and cumulative abnormal returns surrounding specific trade policy events. The selected stock market indices for the analysis are the S&P 500, STOXX Europe 600, and CSI 300. In the theoretical part of the thesis, based on the analysis of scientific literature, it was established that trade wars affect financial markets through several key mechanisms: by increasing trade policy uncertainty, disrupting supply chains, altering investor expectations, and encouraging capital reallocation across markets. Empirical studies indicate that tariff escalation generally leads to negative stock market reactions and increased market volatility; however, this impact is not uniform across different regions. The results of the study revealed that tariff war events can generate statistically significant stock market reactions, although their impact is not identical across all events. The strongest effects were identified in cases involving large-scale and unexpected tariff announcements. The findings also indicate that markets react more strongly to negative trade policy shocks than to positive policy decisions, demonstrating an asymmetry in market reactions. Furthermore, regional differences in market responses were identified: the European market appears to be more sensitive, the U.S. market demonstrates greater resilience, while the Chinese market exhibits less consistent reactions. |
