| Abstract [eng] |
The real estate market is one of the most significant sectors of the economy, closely linked to overall economic growth, household income, lending conditions, and labour market indicators. Changes in housing prices directly reflect economic processes within a country; therefore, assessing the impact of macroeconomic factors is essential for forecasting real estate market dynamics. In recent years, the Lithuanian housing market has experienced rapid price growth, while the changing macroeconomic environment has created a need for a more in-depth analysis of the impact of key variables on market stability and the identification of prevailing trends. In scientific literature, the real estate market is described as a complex and multi-layered system whose development depends on a set of interrelated economic factors, including GDP, inflation, interest rates, wages, and demographic changes. At the theoretical level, it is emphasized that the impact of these variables is not static, as it varies depending on the stage of the economic cycle, consumer expectations, financial system liquidity, and the monetary policy implemented by the state. A review of scientific research suggests that macroeconomic stability and sustainable in-come growth are essential preconditions for balanced real estate market development. The literature also highlights that even minor imbalances in fundamental indicators may lead to long-term price fluctuations, which can have a direct impact on a country’s financial security. The empirical study analyses the impact of macroeconomic factors on the real estate market in Lithuania using quarterly data from 2006–2025. To determine the relationships between variables, a comprehensive correlation analysis was conducted, data stationarity was evaluated, and econometric models were developed to comprehensively assess short-term housing price dynamics. The empirical research revealed that the Lithuanian real estate market is fundamentally shaped by three main pillars: economic activity, household borrowing opportunities, and labour market conditions. The study identified a strong dependence of housing prices on GDP changes and lending volumes, confirming the hypothesis that the Lithuanian housing market is highly sensitive to the availability of financing. The negative impact of unemployment rates confirmed the sensitivity of housing demand to macroeconomic shocks. Furthermore, it was determined that other factors, such as inflation and supply indicators, had only a secondary impact during the analysed period. Based on the modelling results and the identified market inertia, short-term forecasts were developed, predicting moderate and stable housing price development; however, it is emphasized that market stability will remain directly dependent on external economic factors and changes in borrowing costs. |
