| Abstract [eng] |
The trade war between the US and China, which has been ongoing since 2018, is one of the most important geopolitical and economic conflicts of this decade. As these two countries control a large share of global trade, supply chains, and foreign investment, this conflict has had a particularly significant impact on the international economy. Although tariffs have mainly affected US and Chinese indicators, they have also damaged other regions, from the negative impact on Mexico and the European Union to the benefits for certain Asian and African countries. The result of this conflict includes growing international protectionism and the increasing relevance of tariffs and quotas, which leads to rising costs for companies, supply problems, reduced production efficiency, and higher prices for the end consumer. Thus, the tariff war is an important and sensitive issue for all interested countries and regions, and it should be assessed collectively, taking into account not only the impact on the US and China, but also the consequences for the regions concerned. The subject of this study is the international economy in the context of the tariff war, in which the most important role is played by the relationship between the two largest economies in the world – the US and China. The main objective of the study is to thoroughly assess the impact of the US-China tariff war on the international economy. To achieve this goal, an analysis of the selected problem will be carried out to help identify the essence of the conflict. This will be followed by theoretical solutions based on a review of the literature. Finally, the research methodology will be presented, and an empirical study will be carried out based on it, using factual data and statistics. In order to achieve the objective of the study, the following main research methods are used: analysis of scientific literature, graphical analysis, analysis of statistical data, correlation analysis, and regression analysis. A review of the literature revealed various shortcomings in the resolution of international conflicts. Even the main economic models used to analyze tariffs contradict each other, as some claim that tariffs lead to a loss of prosperity, while others say that protectionism is necessary to ensure the prosperity of the state. Organizations created to resolve such conflicts are also unable to resolve the conflict between China and the US. Although profit-seeking companies have essentially created new and more efficient production and supply chains, they do not fundamentally address the root cause of the problem – the ongoing disagreement between the US and China – and the steadily declining confidence in the future does nothing to restore production and investment levels to their former heights. The statistical analysis examined nine variables which, according to the literature review, were affected by changing customs tariffs. Although all variables were stationary, further correlation analysis showed that a statistically significant relationship exists only between the average US tariff level on Chinese goods and Chinese foreign investment. The most accurate regression model found and developed provided an equation according to which it can be stated that when tariffs increase by one unit, Chinese foreign investment decreases by an average of 0.131 units. As the conflict under analysis is still ongoing, it is recommended to monitor it and repeat the study in the future in order to potentially obtain a more accurate and long-term result. |
