| Abstract [eng] |
In recent years, petroleum product handling volumes at the Klaipėda Port have undergone significant changes, particularly after the 2020-2021 period, when cargo volumes did not return to their previous levels. This dynamic raises the question of whether the observed decline in handling volumes is related to port-specific operational characteristics or driven by external economic and energy-related factors. Given the role of Klaipėda Seaport in energy cargo logistics, the analysis of such changes is particularly relevant in the context of short-term port planning. The aim of this study is to empirically assess the impact of macroeconomic and energy-related factors on petroleum product handling volumes at Klaipėda Seaport by identifying statistical relationships in the short term. The analysis seeks to distinguish inertial fluctuations in cargo handling from the effects of external economic factors and to evaluate the extent to which changes in selected indicators explain short-term dynamics in handling volumes. The theoretical part of the study reviews scientific research examining the dependence of port cargo handling on economic activity, energy prices, and geopolitical shocks. The literature emphasizes that the energy cargo segment is characterized by higher short-term volatility and greater sensitivity to external shocks compared to overall port cargo volumes. These insights support the application of time series methods, which allow for the analysis of dynamic relationships between variables and their time lags while focusing on a single dependent variable. The empirical analysis is based on monthly data for the period from 2010 to 2023. Petroleum product handling volumes are treated as the dependent variable, while the Lithuanian industrial production index and Brent crude oil prices are selected as explanatory variables. ARIMA and ARIMAX models are applied to assess both the internal dynamics of cargo handling and the impact of external factors. In this study, the ARIMAX methodology is applied to the analysis of petroleum product handling at Klaipėda Seaport in order to evaluate short-term relationships and observe changes in cargo handling dynamics over the analyzed period. The results indicate that petroleum product handling at Klaipėda Seaport exhibits pronounced cyclicality and several possible structural breaks, with the most significant associated with the 2020-2021 period. The empirical findings reveal a positive and statistically significant impact of industrial production activity on handling volume changes, while the influence of Brent crude oil prices appears to be short-term and negative. This confirms that cargo handling dynamics depend not only on past values but also on changes in the external economic and energy environment. The practical application analysis demonstrates that the empirically estimated ARIMAX model adequately captures the direction of petroleum product handling changes outside the estimation sample, particularly during periods without abrupt economic shocks. Out-of-sample testing confirms that the model’s forecasts outperform naive benchmarks, while the analysis of hypothetical economic scenarios allows for the assessment of the short-term impact of key macroeconomic factors on handling volumes. |
