| Abstract [eng] |
The subject of this study is a 700 MW offshore wind farm in the Baltic Sea, which represents an important step towards transitioning to a sustainable and low-carbon energy system. This transition is essential for addressing climate change issues, enhancing energy security, and meeting the growing demand for cleaner energy sources. Offshore wind turbines, characterized by high wind speeds and the ability to produce energy on a large scale, are becoming increasingly important in this process. However, their integration into the energy system is not without challenges, such as the price cannibalization effect, which reduces electricity market prices during periods of high generation and may undermine the economic viability of such investments. The aim of the study is to evaluate the impact of renewable energy resource development on the profitability of offshore wind farms, taking into account electricity market prices and the costs of wind farm installation. The literature review covers trends in renewable energy resource development in Lithuania and globally, challenges in offshore wind farm development, and the impact of the price cannibalization effect on the profitability of offshore wind farms. The methodology involves calculating park costs and creating different scenarios to assess the impact of electricity prices on park profitability. Various scenarios of renewable energy development are evaluated for their impact on the profitability of offshore wind turbines. Pessimistic and realistic scenarios show how price cannibalization reduces wind park revenue when CPF indicators are less than 1. In optimistic scenarios, CPF is greater than 1, indicating profitability without the impact of cannibalization. This topic is relevant because, with the rapid development of renewable energy in recent years, there is a growing need for the expansion of offshore wind farms in Lithuania. To attract investors, profitability must be ensured. Comparative and sensitivity analyses of different scenarios provide a comprehensive understanding of the conditions under which an offshore wind park can achieve optimal financial results, contributing to strategic planning and investment decision-making. |
