| Abstract [eng] |
The master’s thesis analyses the configuration of electricity bidding zones in the Baltic States and its impact on market performance. This topic is relevant due to the increasing share of renewable energy sources, the rapid integration of electricity markets, and the need to ensure efficient price formation and supply security. The objective of the study is to evaluate how different bidding zone configurations affect market indicators, based on the assessment criteria defined by the European Union. The research compares scenarios of separate and merged bidding zones in the Baltic region, covering three target years – 2025, 2030, and 2050 – and incorporating various climatic years to assess sensitivity to meteorological conditions. The study was conducted using the PLEXOS software, with a mathematical optimization model of the electricity system developed for scenario analysis. Three key evaluation criteria were selected: electricity prices, unserved energy, and curtailed renewable energy generation. Additionally, a sensitivity analysis was carried out by modelling the isolation of the Baltic States from external bidding zones. The modelling results showed that in 2025 and 2030, interconnected zone ensured lower price volatility, more efficient use of renewable resources, and high supply reliability compared to separate zones. In contrast, the 2050 results revealed increased price differences and renewable curtailments, indicating that interconnected configuration becomes less effective under these conditions. The price homogeneity analysis, based on separate zone results, confirmed that in 2025 and 2030 the zones met the criteria for consolidation, while the 2050 outcomes suggested a deterioration of key indicators, making consolidation unjustified without additional grid development. The sensitivity analysis demonstrated a high dependence of the system on cross-border interconnections. Under isolation conditions, electricity prices, unserved energy volumes, and renewable generation curtailments increased significantly, especially in the 2050 scenario. When comparing configurations, the merged zone performed more effectively than the separate zones by achieving lower curtailment levels and more balanced system operation; however, reliable performance was not ensured in either configuration without infrastructure expansion. An optimal bidding zone configuration is closely linked to system stability and the ability to absorb extreme fluctuations in both price and supply. A merged Baltic zone contributes to more efficient resource allocation, reduces price volatility, and enables better risk management related to climatic variation and imbalances in supply and demand. This type of zone design could serve as one of the strategic solutions to ensure a competitive, sustainable, and reliable electricity system in the Baltic region. |
