| Abstract [eng] |
The implementation of international economic sanctions is one of the most powerful tools used to influence specific individuals or legal entities, their groups, or governments without engaging in direct military actions. This tool significantly contributes to the modification of economic relations and imposes economic difficulties on the sanctioned state, the extent of which depends on the nature of the applied international sanctions, the sectors they target, and the scale of the imposed restrictions. In this context, the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine is of particular importance, as Russia is subject to several international sanctions packages, the primary goal of which is to halt Russia's military actions and ensure its withdrawal from Ukrainian sovereign territories. The imposition of international economic sanctions and the initiation of an economic war—marked by Russia’s retaliatory political decisions—have clearly demonstrated the European Union’s significant dependence on Russia in the energy sector, making the EU vulnerable. When applying international sanctions, it is crucial not only to conduct detailed studies of the sanctioned country's economic indicators but also to assess the situation within the EU itself. Once the sector in which the EU—as an entity engaged in economic warfare—is identified as the most vulnerable, it is worth analyzing the situation and developments specifically within that area. This study focuses on the EU energy sector. The main objective of the research is to assess the impact of applied international economic sanctions on the EU’s energy sector and to provide recommendations for further action. The problem analysis examines the premises for imposing international sanctions on Russia, including the annexation of Crimea in 2014 and the large-scale invasion of Ukrainian territory at the beginning of 2022. This section provides an overview of the international sanctions packages introduced due to human rights violations, hybrid attacks, and direct military actions on Ukrainian soil. All of these international sanctions packages are directed at Russia. Attention is also given to the EU energy sector and its development directions, as Russia’s political decisions pose a threat to all the EU’s main energy policy objectives. The theoretical section explores the conditions, factors, and models of the economic impact of international sanctions. It familiarizes the reader with the concept of international sanctions and reviews their classification as presented in the academic works of Lithuanian and foreign authors. The conditions for the imposition of international economic sanctions and their impact models are structured. Additionally, the factors influencing the sectoral impact of international sanctions are examined, along with the conditions and factors affecting a specific energy sector. Indicators and criteria important for further econometric impact assessment are identified. In the practical part, which evaluates the impact of international economic sanctions on the EU energy sector, the dynamics of key indicators highlighted by researchers are assessed, the main causes of changes are identified, and the interrelations between several indicators are investigated. Changes in the direction of energy sector development are also evaluated by comparing the policies applied in the sector before the war and the imposition of international sanctions on Russia, and after the sanctions were applied. An econometric model is developed to assess the impact of international economic sanctions on the EU energy sector, and recommendations for further research are provided. |
