| Abstract [eng] |
This research presents a methodology to compare countries by their resilience to economic shocks. The methodology is designed to measure changes in intermediate consumption within national industrial portfolios that define countries’ ability to compete in international markets along value chains. Comparison of countries by their competitiveness in this research proves to be sufficient to represent the comparison of countries by their relative resilience to economic shocks. This research enables the identification of time intervals of global or regional economic shocks and recoveries by applying statistical calculations. It also becomes possible to statistically determine the source industries and regions or countries responsible for global economic disruptions caused by disruptive environmental, economic, or other events (including political) on the international stage. Application of the holistic theory enables the approach that all regions, countries, or industries, with their business cycles, are internal to the global economy, thereby integrating the majority of externalities and enabling comparisons of countries within the context of a single global economy. This research highlights that a country’s ability to compete in international trade is an essential factor of its resilience despite the nature of the source of an economic shock or any other disruption in the global economy. The assessment has revealed the potential for countries to identify, predict, and direct their policies towards a more effective industrial portfolio setup before the occurrence of economic shocks to enhance their ability to resist and recover in the future. |
