| Abstract [eng] |
The influence of economic shocks on economic cyclicality is undeniable. Economies of different countries are periodically affected by various types of shocks that disrupt the prevailing economic cyclicality. To bring cyclicality back to its normal course, governments have applied different economic stabilization measures at different times. The theoretical part of this work looks at three economic shocks that occurred at different times – the Great Depression, the Great Recession (Global Financial Crisis) and the COVID-19 pandemic. The economic stabilization programs and measures applied during these shocks are analyzed, their evolution is assessed, and their effectiveness is commented on. The literary part of this paper found that over a period of almost 100 years, economic stabilization programs in the United States have evolved dramatically. In terms of fiscal policy, the governments started using budget deficit as a means of implementing its fiscal policy, the liquidationist approach was shifted to Keynesian economic principles. Meanwhile, the gold standard ceased to operate in monetary policy, and open market operations were supplemented by such measures as quantitative easing and forward guidance. The research part of this paper attempts to assess the impact of the amount of funds allocated to economic stabilization programs on the severity and duration of an economic shock, as well as on the inflation following it. The data used in the study is collected from various sources, the suitability of the data for the study is commented on, and data processing operations are performed. The study itself is carried out using econometric modeling and statistical data analysis. Graphical analysis of statistical data revealed a certain correlation between the amount of money allocated to implement economic stabilization programs and the average wages in the country. A similar description is also suitable for the relationship between the duration of quarantine and the maximum GDP decline during an economic shock, but in this case, the analysis showed some exceptions. After conducting econometric modeling with macroeconomic and economic shock defining variables, it was not possible to create linear regression models – it was chosen to create pairwise nonlinear regression (PNR) models. A total of 140 PNR models were created, and 20 of the most significant ones are displayed in the research part of this paper. Five of these models examined the relationship between the amount of money allocated for economic stimulus programs and different COVID-19 pandemic induced economic shock indicators. The study found that there is a significant relationship between the amount of money allocated for stabilization measures and the duration of the economic shock. The maximum inflation rate after the shock did not correlate with the amount of money allocated for stimulus measures, but a significant link was found between the inflation rate and the change in electricity prices in 2020–2022. The study used data from 16 countries; in order to improve the study, it is recommended to increase the research sample and to separate the amount of money allocated for economic stimulus programs into separate components to further study their individual impact on macroeconomic indicators. |
