| Abstract [eng] |
The main aim of this paper is to investigate the probabilistic model of extreme weight of snow according to Extreme Value distributions and to find out which Gumbel’s, Weibull’s, GEV’s, and Fréchet’s distribution the best fits for the data. The probabilities of weight of snow, posing a serious environmental hazard are estimated there. The extreme snow thickness data at Dūkštas region (1992-2009) were measured in cooperation with Lithuanian Hydrometeorological Service and Dūkštas meteorological station; so the results of the modeling and analysis better suit for current conditions. The choice of this natural disaster was because of the high risk of accidents caused to such essential objects as Ignalina Nuclear Power Plant, Kaunas Hydroelectric Power Plant, Kruonis Pump Storage Power Plant, “Mažeikiai nafta" terminal, “Achema” group of buildings, etc. No matter the importance and significance of this natural phenomenon, much less attention is paid to them than to the other elements. |
