| Title |
Tikimybinės dinamikos modeliavimas ir patikimumo analizė / |
| Translation of Title |
Simulation and reliability analysis of probabilistic dynamics. |
| Authors |
Eimontas, Tadas |
| Full Text |
|
| Pages |
82 |
| Keywords [eng] |
probabilistic dynamics ; stimulus and delay ; simulation ; reliability analysis ; uncertainty and sensitivity analysis |
| Abstract [eng] |
The current probabilistic safety analysis is not capable of estimating the reliability of the complex dynamic systems where the interactions occur between hardware, software and human actions. In the safety analysis of these systems the time factor is as much important as it joins an evolution of physical variables and stochastic events. In this master thesis the simulation and reliability analysis of the probabilistic dynamics are considered. The new approach of stimulus based probabilistic dynamics is used for the Monte Carlo simulations of the dynamic system. The developed methodology was applied for the safety analysis of the loss of the coolant accident in the nuclear reactor. Besides the assessment of the probability of system failure the scenario analysis was accomplished. The essential events were identified. The uncertainty and sensitivity analysis revealed that the failure probability had a wide range of the distribution due to the uncertainty of twelve simulation parameters. Four main parameters were identified as their uncertainty had the biggest correlation with the uncertainty of the system failure. For the complete reliability analysis the relations between the failure probability and the system characteristics were determined. |
| Type |
Master thesis |
| Language |
Lithuanian |
| Publication date |
2007 |
