| Abstract [eng] |
Nowadays there is no need to convince anyone about the necessity of renewable energy. One of the most promising ways to obtain it is the wind power. Countries like Denmark, Germany or Spain proved that, while professionally managed, it can cover a substantial part of the overall energy demand. One of the main and specific problems related to the wind power management — development of the accurate power prediction models. Nowadays State-Of-Art systems provide predictions for a single wind turbine, wind farm or a group of them. However, the spatio-temporal propagation of the errors is not adequately considered. In this paper the potential for improving modern wind power prediction tool WPPT, based on the spatio-temporal propagation of the errors, is examined. Several statistical models (Linear, Threshold, Varying-coefficient and Conditional Parametric) capturing the cross-dependency of the errors, obtained in different parts of the country, are presented. The analysis is based on the weather forecast information and wind power prediction errors obtained for the territory of Denmark in the year 2004. |
