| Abstract [eng] |
Natural gas is commonly used as a fuel. Since natural gas is a flammable and explosive fuel, it is hazardous and its transportation has inherited risks associated with potential damage. The rupture of a high-pressure natural gas pipeline can lead to consequences that can pose a significant threat to people and property in the close vicinity to the pipeline fault location. The dominant hazard is explosion and thermal radiation from a sustained fire. The main purpose of the following work is to present the explosion consequence assessment and application of probabilistic uncertainty analysis for modeling of gas pipeline explosion effects, also present the development of a simplified method for the quantitative risk assessment of natural gas pipelines. The performed uncertainty analysis is the part of safety assessment that focuses on the explosion consequence analysis. Important components of such uncertainty analysis include qualitative and quantitative analysis that identifies the uncertain parameters of explosion model, assessment of uncertainty, analysis of the impact of uncertain parameters on the modeling results, and communication of the results’ uncertainty. As outcome of uncertainty analysis the tolerance limits and distribution function of thermal radiation intensity are given. The uncertainty and sensitivity analysis were performed and outcomes were presented applying software systems SUSA. Also there were presented and applied variance based methods such as Sobol and the extended FAST (Fourier Amplitude Sensitivity Test) using software systems Simlab 2.2. Conclusions about the importance of the parameters and sensitivity of the results are obtained using an approximation of the model under analysis. The outcome of sensitivity analysis confirms that distance from the fire center has the greatest influence on the heat flux caused by gas pipeline explosion. |
