| Abstract [eng] |
Estimating greenhouse gases is a complex and data-intensive process, as there is no common methodology for compiling an urban emissions inventory. The aim of the master's thesis was to carry out a long-term projection of the greenhouse gas emissions of Kaunas city and to propose the most favorable scenarios for the development of the city. The literature review included an analysis and evaluation of scientific literature on climate change and neutrality, the city mission, the overall situation in Lithuania and the sectors of Kaunas city. The methodology part of the research describes the development of a greenhouse gas emissions inventory and presents methods for forecasting their change until 2050. The results section presents an assessment of the current situation of greenhouse gas emissions in the energy, transport and industry sectors of Kaunas city and the results of the forecasting under three scenarios, considering the selected climate change mitigation measures. The study shows that the population of Kaunas city has grown by 6,4 % since 2019 and will grow around 13 % by 2050. It is projected that Kaunas will have 323153 inhabitants in 2050. The growth trend is also visible in the electricity sector. Electricity consumption between 2021 and 2050 will increase from 150104 to 223072 MWh and emissions will increase by 25 %. In the central heating sector, the rate of growth of consumption decreases to 1202290 MWh by 2050, but emissions remain relatively high at 409187 t CO2e. The analysis of the transport sector shows that, by fuel type and vehicle type, diesel vehicles and passenger cars account for the largest share in Kaunas. The total greenhouse gas emissions from transport will rise from 1076105 t in 2021 to 1884845 t in 2050. In terms of total greenhouse gas emissions, the transport sector in 2050 will accounts for the largest share at 67,3 %. This is followed by industry at 15,8 %, heating at 14,6 % and electricity at 2,3 %. The long-term projection scenarios show that greenhouse gas emissions are reduced by only 30,3 % in the medium scenario and 56,5 % in the optimistic scenario compared to baseline scenario. The analysed data shows that the mitigation measures adopted in the thesis are not sufficient for Kaunas to reach climate neutrality by 2050. |
