| Abstract [eng] |
This paper analyses scientific sources in order to provide an overview of the concept and types of economic shocks, conditions of economic resilience, fiscal and monetary policies, and to analyse the measures to stimulate the economy in the European Union and in Lithuania. Also to identify the measures to stimulate the tourism sector in Lithuania in the context of economic shocks. Statistical analysis, data aggregation, graphical analysis and econometric modelling have been carried out in order to find out the impact of the economic stimulus measures used by the Government of the Republic of Lithuania on the indicators of the Lithuanian tourism sector. The analysis of scientific sources shows that in order to stop the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic and the damaging effects it had on the regional economy, governments took drastic measures, often disrupting many economic sectors. Governments around the world have adopted two contrasting strategies in the face of the COVID-19 pandemic: prioritise protecting the lives of the population by slowing down economic activity or prioritise protecting the economy and try to minimise the negative impact of the infection on the health of the population. It was noted that the tourism sector was one of the sectors most affected by the shock of the pandemic, and measures to stabilise the economy were adopted together. The graphical analysis of the statistical data showed a significant increase in the number of domestic tourists using the services of travel agencies and tour operators, as well as a slight change in the number of employees and the number of enterprises operating and led to the conclusion that the measures taken by the Government of the Republic of Lithuania to stimulate the economy have had a positive effect. The study found no linear relationship between the economic stimulus measures provided through INVEGA and changes in the tourism sector indicators, but pairwise non-linear regression (PNR) models showed that there was a significant relationship between the loans to tourism service providers and changes in almost all of the tourism sector indicators studied, which means that the measure had a significant impact on the changes in the indicators of tourism. The study identifies the data that should be collected and the ways in which the intended variables should be analysed in order to see how the chosen economic stimulus measures affect the target sector. The recommendations made in the paper indicate what data should be collected and at what intervals to assess the impact of economic stimulus measures and may be useful for future research in terms of the choice of data sample, frequency and methods of analysis. |
