| Abstract [eng] |
Investment and the formation of real estate bubbles are closely related. The fact that a real estate bubble can be called as a result of irrational investments is shown by the conducted scientific research. The main reason is often attributed to the irrational behavior of consumers. Users expect to generate the maximum result in a short period of time. Such behavior is often based not on professional opinion, but on extrapolated expectations and the belief that prices will continue to rise in the future. In this way, there is an imbalance in the real estate market and price increases that are not based on economic grounds. Irrational price increases lead to the formation of real estate bubbles, and bursting bubbles can cause a lot of damage to the economy and financial markets. The historical bubble that happened 15 years ago showed that the consequences caused by the bursting of the bubble can turn into a global crisis. Therefore, it is especially important to constantly research real estate property markets. The indicators and methods used in the literature for research are mostly applied to the US and Chinese real estate markets. Therefore, the main goal of the study is to perform a real estate market assessment using different methods in the Baltic countries. The problem raised is whether the methods and indicators found in the scientific literature applied in the major real estate markets show the formation of real estate bubbles in the Baltic countries. The problem of the formation of NT bubbles is analyzed in the first part of the study, which identifies the main causes, consequences and problem areas. The second part of this study analyzes the factors, indicators and methods of real estate bubbles in the scientific literature. The classification of factors and indicators is made and the main factors causing the formation of real estate bubbles are named: investments in real estate, interest rates, GDP, macroprudential monetary policy, population income, consumer expectations, granted loans, unemployment rate. Indicators and methods for analyzing the formation of real estate bubbles are also examined. The literature review showed that the main indicators are: bank panic and leverage coefficients, interest rate changes, GDP growth rate, production volume, unemployment rate, housing price and rental indices, real estate investments, population, income of residents and provided loans And the most commonly used methods in research are log-periodic power law singularity (LPPLS), vector error correction (VEC) and value at risk (VAR) methods. The methods of price and income, rational expectations and early warning are also widely used. In the third part of the study, the methodology of the empirical research is compiled. Named methods of evaluation of the formation of real estate bubbles are used to conduct an empirical study. The research is conducted on the basis of prices and personal income, rational expectations and early warning methods in 2004. - 2022.6 In the fourth part, an empirical study of the formation of real estate bubbles in the Baltic countries is carried out. The obtained results showed that all analyzed methods indicated a real estate bubble in the Baltic countries in 2004. - 2010. It was also established that the method of rational prices in Latvia identified a real estate bubble in 2021, and the method of early warning in Lithuania in 2020. Thus, the obtained results of the empirical study show that the methods used in the work are suitable for investigating the formation of real estate bubbles in the Baltic countries. |
