| Title |
Hierarchical Bayesian reliability assessment of energy networks |
| Authors |
Iešmantas, Tomas ; Alzbutas, Robertas |
| DOI |
10.15388/LMR.A.2015.04 |
| Full Text |
|
| Is Part of |
Lietuvos matematikos rinkinys. Serija A.. Vilnius : Lietuvos matematikų draugija. 2015, vol. 56, p. 18-23.. ISSN 0132-2818. eISSN 2335-898X |
| Keywords [eng] |
Bayesian reliability ; networks ; heterogenety ; hierarchical Bayesian methods |
| Abstract [eng] |
It is often the case that data used for the systems reliability assessment comes from more than one information source. Whether they are power plants at different geo- graphical locations, gas transmission pipelines operating in different environment or power transmission networks deployed within various areas. Therefore, different operating condi- tions, varying maintenance programs and efficiencies have its share in influencing the vul- nerability and variability of reliability data. However, in practice it is usually the case that this heterogeneity is neglected leading to the underestimation of underlying uncertainty of the data. Bayesian models are capable of dealing with this kind of uncertainty as opposed to the frequentists statistical methods. Hierarchical Bayesian modelling technique provides means to quantify not only within-source, but also between-source uncertainties. Even in the case of small data samples it performs well, unlike for example the classical likelihood method which may provide degenerate estimates. In this paper authors investigate the pos- sibility to incorporate this kind of uncertainty into the systems reliability and vulnerability assessment through the Bayesian framework in several cases: gas transmission networks and power transmission grids. |
| Published |
Vilnius : Lietuvos matematikų draugija |
| Type |
Journal article |
| Language |
English |
| Publication date |
2015 |
| CC license |
|
