| Abstract [eng] |
The article deals with the issue of how to accurately assess the Risk (risk of cost overrun) in PIPs (public investment projects). Problematic and, as a result, rare application of quantitative risk assessment tools in the public sector determines the relevance of systemization and facilitation of techniques, which would allow increasing accuracy of Risk assessment as well as efficiency and transparency of public finance management. The purpose of this article is to analyze the peculiarities of Risk in PIPs and to find the PDs (probability distributions) that best enable to assess the Risk in PIPs more specifically. Summarizing the scientific literature, it was revealed that, due to a complex of problems, risk assessment based on historical data gives place to the qualitative tools such as personal expertise, which is prevailing in practice. However, under the circumstances analyzed in the article, the application of historical data allows getting more accurate results, and the public sector, despite the lack of experience in comparison with the private one, has more advantages in this case. The performed case study enabled to present a methodology of how to systemize data for the assessment of Risk in PIPs. The peculiarities of Risk were analyzed in groups (PIP groups), their classification was based on PIP accounting plan of long-term assets in Lithuania. The findings of the article showed the difficulties of the public sector to ensure sufficient financing as well as the problems to manage Risk in PIPs. The case study disclosed the inability of the so called “traditional” PDs to accurately describe this tendency of success of the public sector to implement PIP within the estimated budget, while the Loglogistics and its parameters were tested as the most suitable PD to assess the Risk not in a general case, but also in different PIP groups. |
